October prices remain high in DC area as inventories decline for 18th consecutive month

Washington D.C. Metro median price of $413,125 at highest October level in decade; closed sales and pending contracts at October highs

OVERVIEW

• The Washington D.C. Metro median sales price of $413,125 was up 3.3% or $13,125 compared to last year and up 2.0% or $8,125 compared to last month.  This is the highest October price of the decade and the 13^thconsecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was more than $2.2 billion, up 12.8% from last year.
• Closed sales of 4,320 were up 8.8% compared to last year and up 6.9% compared to last month.  
• New contracts of 4,969 were up 2.2% compared to last year and up 3.3% compared to last month. 
• New listings of 5,770 were up 6.9% compared to last year but down 17.2% below last month.
• Active listings of 10,105 are down 2.8% compared to last year and down 7.3% compared to last month. This is the 18th consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in October was 98.0%.
• The median days-on-market for October 2017 was 17 days, six days lower than last year.

• October’s regional median sales price of $413,125 was an increase of 3.3% or $13,125 compared to last year, and was up 2.0% or $8,125 compared to last month.  This is the 13^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and was the highest October level of the last 10 years.
• Compared to last year, townhome prices rose 3.8% to $410,000, single-family detached home prices increased 3.7% to $508,180, and condo prices rose 3.0% to $307,000. 
• October prices are above the 5-year average of $398,425 and the 10-year average of $367,615.
• The overall regional price of $413,125 is 3.3% above the $400,000 seen in October 2016 and 2014 and is 30.5% higher than the market low of $316,500 seen in 2009.
• Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $606,950, down 13.6% from last year. 
• Prince George’s County remains the most affordable area in the region, with a median sales price of $285,000, a 6.7% increase over last year. 
• For the year to date, the regional median sales price of $426,000 is up 2.7%.

• Closed sales of 4,320 were up 8.8% from last year and up 6.9% from last month. 
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 16.0% to 1,250, townhome sales were up 15.3% to 1,208, and single-family detached sales were up 1.0% to 1,862.
• Sales remain well above both the 5-year average of 3,967 and the 10-year average of 3,635.
• October’s closed sales were 53.5% above the market low of 2,815 seen in October 2011 and were 3.6% above the decade’s previous high of 4,170 seen in 2009.
• Sales activity across the region was mostly up, with the largest gain in Fairfax City (+113.6% or 25 sales) and the largest decline in Falls Church City ( -7.7% or 1 sale). 
• Year-to-date sales are up 4.4% to 47,239.  All jurisdictions except Montgomery County (-0.1% or 8 sales) show gains in sales, with the largest percentage gain in Fairfax City (+38.8% or 109 sales) and the smallest in Fairfax County (+2.7% or 363 sales).   

• New pending sales of 4,969 were up 2.2% compared to last year, and were up 3.3% compared to last month.
• Condo pending sales increased 3.8% to 1,325, townhome pending sales increased 3.6% to 1,337, and pending sales of single-family detached homes were up 0.5% to 2,306.
• Pending sales are above the 5-year average of 4,721 and the 10-year average of 4,297.
• October’s new pending sales were 80.0% more than the October 2008 low of 2,761.
• Pending sales activity across the region was mostly up, with the largest percentage increase in Falls Church City, which was up from 12 new pending sales to 15 or 25.0%, and the smallest increase in Montgomery County, where new pending sales were up 0.5% or 6.  Only Fairfax City saw pending sales decline, from 33 to 31 (-6.1%).

• October’s 5,770 new listings were up 6.9% from last year, but were down 17.2% from last month.
• Compared to last year, new condo listings were up 13.0% to 1,644, new townhome listings were up 7.8% to 1,467, and new single-family listings were up 2.9% to 2,658.
• New listings are above both the 5-year average of 5,724 and the 10-year average of 5,570. 
• October new listings are 25.8% above the 10-year low of 4,588 seen in October 2012, and are 6.4% below the prior peak of 6,164 seen in 2015.
• Across the region, Falls Church City saw the only percentage decrease in new listings (-62.5% to 9).  The largest percentage increase was in Fairfax City (+21.2% to 40).
• For the year-to-date, new listings across the entire DC Metro area are up 2.6% compared to last year to 67,339.

• There were 10,105 active listings at the end of October, down 2.8% compared to last year and down 7.3% compared to last month.  Inventory levels have declined for 18 consecutive months.
• Condo inventories were virtually flat at 2,721, while townhome inventories were down 0.8% to 1,957 and single-family detached inventories were down 2.8% to 5,418.
• Inventories are below both the 5-year average of 10,869, and the 10-year average of 13,174.
• October inventory levels exceed the 2012 low of 8,766 by 15.3%, but are down 57.1% from the peak of 23,544 seen in October 2008.
• Across the region, inventory levels showed the largest gain in Washington D.C., where they increased 16.1% to 1,595.  The largest percentage decline was in Falls Church City (-53.7% to 19).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for October was 98.0%, up from both last year’s 97.4% and last month’s 97.6%. 
• Townhomes have the highest October SP to OLP ratio of 98.7%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 98.1% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.5%.
• October’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 97.4% and the 10-year average of 95.7%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest October average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2008, when it was 92.2%.  Prior to this year, the highest October SP to OLP ratio had been the 97.7% seen in 2013.
• Washington D.C. had the highest regional SP to OLP ratio of 99.0%, up from last year’s 98.7%.
• Falls Church City had the lowest SP to OLP ratio of 96.3%, down from last year’s 97.7%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 99.0%, up just slightly from last year’s 98.8%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in October was 17 days, down six days from last year’s 23 days, and down three days from last month’s 20 days.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 13, while condos have a median DOM of 15, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 22.
• October’s median DOM was four days below the 5-year average of 21 days and 14 days below the 10-year average of 31 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 17 is the second-lowest October level in a decade (the lowest was 16 days in 2013).  The highest October median DOM of the last 10 years was 64 days in 2008.
• The highest median DOM in the region in October was in Falls Church City, where it was 64 days, up from 16 days last year. 
• Washington D.C. has the lowest median DOM of 9 days, down from 12 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 15 days, down from 20 days last year.

Prepared for RbIntel by Corey Hart.