Relatively active January housing market as DC area inventories remain tight

Washington D.C. Metro housing market continues to tighten, with median sales price of $390,000 at highest January level of the decade, sales and pending sales at decade highs and inventory levels decline for ninth consecutive month

OVERVIEW

• January 2017’s median sales price of $390,000 was up $14,500 or 3.9% compared to last year.  This is the highest January median sales price of the last decade, topping the prior high of $385,000 seen in 2015.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $1.5 billion, up 19.5% from last January.
• Closed sales of 3,014 were up 11.5% compared to last year, also the highest January level in a decade, exceeding the 2,702 sales recorded last January.
• New contract activity also reached a ten-year January high, increasing by 15.5% versus the snowy January of 2016 to 3,954 contracts.  
• New listings of 4,541 increased 12.8% compared to last year.
• Active listings of 7,224 are down 12.7% compared to last year and down 3.1% compared to last month. This is the ninth consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels, and inventories are at the lowest January level since 2014.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in January was 97.0%, up from last year’s 96.0%, but the same as last month.
• The median days-on-market for January 2017 was 34 days, ten days lower than last year.

• January’s regional median sales price rose to $390,000, the highest January level in a decade, which was a 3.9% or $14,500 increase over last year, although 4.9% lower than last month.
• All property types saw increases in price, with townhomes up 5.0% to $389,000, condos up 4.9% to $300,000, and single-family detached up 3.3% to $465,000.    
• January prices are above the 5-year average of $372,740 and the 10-year average of $346,450.
• The January overall regional price of $390,000 is 34.5% above the January 2010 low of $290,000, and 1.3% above the prior January high of $385,000 seen in 2015.
• Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $610,000, which is down 18.3% from last year. Prince George’s County is still the most affordable area in the region, with a January median sales price of $260,000, up 7.9% from last January.

• January’s closed sales of 3,014 were up 11.5% or 312 units from last year and down 25.1% from last month. 
• All property types experienced increases in sales this month, with condos up 13.4% to 844, townhome sales up 12.2% to 763, and single-family detached sales up 10.1% to 1,407.
• Sales were well above both the 5-year average of 2,642 and the 10-year average of 2,457.
• January’s closed sales were up 63% compared to the market low of 1,849 seen in January 2008.
• Across the region, all jurisdictions showed increases in January sales, with the largest percentage gain in Falls Church City, which was up 87.5% compared to last year (although the actual increase was only 7 sales), and the smallest increase in Fairfax County, where sales rose 6.9% to 794.

• New pending sales of 3,954 were up 15.5% compared to last year, the highest January level in a decade.  They were also up 11.8% compared to last month.
• All property types saw increases in pending sales, with condos up 21.0% to 1,136, single-family detached up 17.2% to 1,830, and townhomes up 7.0% to 987.
• Pending contracts were above both the 5-year average of 3,703 and the 10-year average of 3,411.
• January 2017’s new pending sales were 63.8% above the January 2008 low of 2,414 and were 1.0% above the prior high of 3,916 seen in January 2013.
• Pending sales activity across the region is universally up, with the largest percentage increase in Falls Church City (+183.3%), which was up from 6 units to 17.  The smallest increase in new pending sales was in Montgomery County, where they were up 11.1% to 848.

• There were 4,541 new listings in January, a 12.8% increase over last year and a 47.0% increase compared to last month. 
• All property types saw increases in new listings, with townhomes up 14.7% to 1,075, single-family detached also up 14.7% to 2,128, and condos up 8.4% to 1,334.
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 4,178, but are below the 10-year average of 4,729. 
• January new listings are 13.4% above the 10-year low of 4,004 seen in January 2013, and 36.2% below the January 2008 high of 7,120.
• Across the D.C. Metro, all jurisdictions saw increases in new listings, with the largest in Falls Church City (+60.0% or 6 units) and the smallest in Fairfax County (+9.4% or 105 units).

• January active inventories decreased 12.7% compared to last year to 7,224.  Inventories were also down 3.1% compared to last month. 
• All property types showed decreases in inventory levels over last year, with townhome inventories down 17.2% to 1,241, condo inventories down 13.4% to 2,002, and single-family detached inventories down 10.9% to 3,972.
• Inventories are below the 5-year average of 7,249, and well below the 10-year average of 11,487.
• January inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 6,049 by 19.4%, but are down 67.5% from the peak of 22,201 seen in January 2008.
• In the Falls Church City area, inventory levels remained steady, while in all other jurisdictions they declined, with the largest decreases in Fairfax County and Alexandria City, where they dropped 17.4%.

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for January was 97.0%, the same as last month, but up from last year’s 96.0%.
• Townhomes have the highest January SP to OLP ratio of 97.6%.  Condos have a ratio of 97.0% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.8%.
• January’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 96.3% and the 10-year average of 94.3%
• Over the last decade, the region’s January average sales price to original listing price ratio ranged from a low of 90.0% in 2009, to this January’s high of 97.0%.  The prior highest January level in the last ten years was the 96.6% seen in 2014.
• On average, homes in Prince George’s County sold at 98.3% of their original listing price in January, the highest in the region, and up significantly from last year’s 96.5%
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Falls Church City, where the average ratio was 94.8%, up from last year’s 93.2%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in January was 34 days, down ten days from last year but up five days from last month.
• Single-family detached homes and condos both had median DOM of 35, while townhomes had a median DOM of 29.
• January’s median DOM was three days below the 5-year average of 37 days, and was 16 days below the 10-year average of 50 days.
• The lowest January DOM recorded in the past decade was 32 days in 2013 and 2014, and the highest was 85 days in 2008.
• Regionally, the highest median DOM in January was recorded in Falls Church City at 60 days, down from 92 days last year. 
• The lowest median DOM is still in Washington D.C. where it is 23 days, down from 26 days last year.

As published by RbIntel. Written by Corey Hart