DC area market kicks off 2018 with high prices, low supply

Washington D.C. Metro median price of $399,900 at highest January level in decade; closed sales and pending contracts flat; inventory levels near all-time low.

OVERVIEW

• Washington D.C. Metro’s January median sales price of $399,900 was up 2.5% or $9,900 compared to last year, the 16^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.  Prices were down 4.8% compared to last month.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $1.5 billion, down 0.7% from last year.
• Closed sales of 2,974 were down 1.3% compared to last year and were 23.5% below last month.  
• New contracts of 3,956 were down 0.1% compared to last year but were up 19.4% compared to last month.
• New listings of 4,232 were down 6.8% compared to last year but were up a seasonal 51.2% from last month.
• Active listings of 6,155 are down 14.8% compared to last year and down 8.6% compared to last month. This is the 21^st consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in January was 96.9%, down from last year’s 97.0%
• The median days-on-market for January 2017 was 30 days, four days lower than last year.

• January’s regional median sales price of $399,900 was an increase of 2.5% or $9,900 compared to last year, but prices were down a seasonal 4.8% or $20,150 compared to last month.  This is the 16^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and was the highest January level of the last 10 years.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached home prices increased 5.7% to $491,500, townhome prices rose 4.1% to $405,000 and condo prices declined 5.0% to $285,000. 
• January prices are above the 5-year average of $384,080 and the 10-year average of $348,440.
• The regional price of $399,900 is 37.9% higher than the market low of $290,000 seen in 2010.
• Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $639,000, up 4.8% from last year.
• Prince George’s County remains the most affordable area in the region, with a median sales price of $270,000, a 3.9% increase over last January.

• Closed sales of 2,974 were down 1.3% from last year and down 23.5% from last month. 
• Both condo and townhome sales rose compared to last year.  Condo sales increased 6.2% to 896 and townhome sales rose 1.0% to 771.  Single-family detached sales were down 7.2% to 1,306.
• Sales were well above both the 10-year average of 2,738 and the 5-year average of 2,570.
• January’s closed sales were 43.0% above the January 2009 market low of 2,079 but were 1.3% below last year’s 3,014.
• Sales activity across the region was mostly down, with only Alexandria City (+10.4% or 13 sales), Prince George’s County (+1.5% or 10 sales) and Washington D.C. (+0.4% or 2 sales) seeing increases.  All other areas saw declines, with the largest percentage in Falls Church City (-80.0% or 12 sales) and the smallest decline in Fairfax County (-1.0% or 8 sales).

• New pending sales of 3,956 were just two sales or 0.1% above last year but were up 19.4% compared to last month. 
• Pending sales of townhomes were up 4.4% to 1,030, while condo pending sales were up a slight 0.6% to 1,143.  Pending sales of single-family detached homes were down 2.7% to 1,781.
• Pending sales are above the 5-year average of 3,711 and the 10-year average of 3,565.
• January’s new pending sales were 57.4% more than the January 2009 low of 2,514.
• Pending sales activity across the region was mixed.  Declines were posted in Fairfax and Montgomery Counties, which both saw declines of 7.1% to 987 and 788, respectively, and Falls Church City, which fell -76.5% to 4.  Arlington County saw the largest increase in pending sales (+19.4% to 215) and Prince George’s County had the smallest increase (+2.2% to 994).  

• January’s 4,232 new listings were down 6.8% from last year but were up a seasonal 51.2% from last month. 
• Compared to last year, new townhome listings were down 0.3% to 1,072, new condo listings were down 2.8% to 1,296, and new single-family listings were down 12.6% to 1,859.
• New listings are just barely above the 5-year average of 4,224 but are below the 10-year average of 4,440. 
• January new listings are 5.7% above the 10-year low of 4,004 seen in January 2013 and are 22.8% below the peak of 5,484 seen in January 2009.
• Across the region, Falls Church City saw the largest percentage decline in new listings (-50.0% to 8).  The only increases in new listings were in Fairfax City (+35.5% to 42) and in Alexandria City (+0.5% to 217).

• There were 6,155 active listings at the end of January, down 14.8% compared to last year and down 8.6% compared to last month.  Year-over-year inventory levels have declined for 21 consecutive months.
• Compared to last year, townhome inventories were down 3.5% to 1,197, while condo inventories were down 13.1% to 1,739 and single-family detached inventories were down 19.2% to 3,208.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-year average of 7,270 and the 10-year average of 9,882.
• January inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 6,049 by just 1.8% but are down 69.5% from the peak of 20,197 seen in January 2009.
• Across the region, inventory levels increased only in Fairfax City, (+33.3% to 48).  The largest percentage decline was in Falls Church City (-31.6% to 13) and the smallest decline was in Alexandria City (-4.6% to 289).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for January was 96.9%, down just slightly from last year’s 97.0%.  It was also down from last month’s 97.2%. 
• Townhomes have the highest January SP to OLP ratio of 98.0%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.7% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.4%.
• January’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 96.4% and the 10-year average of 94.8%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest January average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2009, when it was 90.0%.  Last January’s high of 97.0% was the highest of the last 10 years.
• Falls Church City saw the highest regional SP to OLP ratio of 100.5% on three sales, up significantly from last year’s 94.8%.
• Fairfax City had the lowest SP to OLP ratio of 93.6%, down significantly from last year’s 96.7%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in January was 30 days, down four days from last year but up three days from last month.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 20, while condos have a median DOM of 32, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 36.
• January’s median DOM was seven days below the 5-year average of 37 days and 15 days below the 10-year average of 45 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 30 is the lowest January level in a decade (the previous low had been 32 days in 2013 and 2014).  The highest January median DOM of the last 10 years was 81 days in 2009.
• The highest median DOM in the region in January was in Falls Church City, where it was 40 days, down from 60 days last year. 
• Fairfax City had the lowest median DOM of 13 days, down significantly from 58 days last year.

By Corey Hart for RBIntel