Closed sales increase, but snowstorm chills January's listing and contract activity in DC Metro area

By: Corey Hart for RBIntel

Prices dip 2.5% though closed sales up in all segments

• January 2016’s median sales price of $375,500 was $9,500 less than last year, a 2.5% decrease. 
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $1.25 billion, up 2.7% from last January.
• Sales in January remained strong, with a 5.8% gain, and sales gains in all property types. 
• The number of new contracts at the end of January fell by 8% to 3,423, the first decline in 15 months and likely related to the late January snowstorm.
• New listings of 4,025 were down 5.3% from last January, which was the first time in 14 months they decreased, also probably related to the bad weather.
• After rising to a peak year-over-year increase of 34.6% in August 2014, inventory growth has steadily declined, and at 8,277 listings, is only 4.1% higher than a year ago.  Year-over-year inventory growth will likely turn negative sometime in 2016. 
• The average percent of original list price received at sale was 96.0% in January, exceeded in the last 10 years by only the January 2014 ratio of 96.6%.
• Half the homes sold in January were on market 44 days or less, down a day from last January’s median DOM and down by almost 50% from the all-time January high of 85 seen in 2008.

• The region’s median price of $375,500 in January was 2.5% lower than last year, with single-family detached prices unchanged and townhomes and condo prices down.  This marks the second month in a row that overall prices have declined year-over-year.  However, prices still remain 5.3% above the 5-year average and 7.9% above the 10-year average.
• Regional pricing levels are now 29.5% above the $290,000 January trough of the market in 2010, and only 7.3% off the $405,000 January peak in 2007.
• Falls Church City remained the most expensive location in the region with a January median sales price of $747,000, a 31.2% increase over last year.
• Prince George’s County continues to be the most affordable area in the region with a January median price of $241,000, which was an 11.1% increase over last year.

• There were 2,702 closed sales in January, up 5.8% compared to 2015.  All types of properties saw increases in the number of sales.  Closed sales exceeded both the 5 and 10-year averages.
• January’s closed sales total was up 46.1% compared to the market low of 1,849 seen in 2008, but was 20% below 2007’s peak level of 3,377.
• Fairfax County had the most closed sales in January with 743, which was an increase of 5.4% from last year.
• Prince George’s County saw the largest percentage increase in sales, where the 599 sales in January represented a 17.7% increase over last year.

• There were 3,423 new pending sales at the end of January 2016, down 8% compared to last year, 6.8% below the 5-year average and just slightly below the 10-year average.
• January 2016’s new pending sales total was up 41.8% compared to the January low of 2,414 seen in 2008, but was 17.6% below 2007’s peak level of 4,153.
• Fairfax County had the most new pending contracts sales in January with 951, which was a decrease of 6.2% from last year.
• All jurisdictions except Fairfax City and all property types saw decreases in the number of new contracts compared to last year.

• The 4,025 new listings in January 2016 was a 5.3% decline compared to last year.
• The January new listings are just slightly above the 10-year low of 4,004 seen in January 2013 and are a significant 43.5% below the January 2008 market peak of 7,120.
• New listings in January were 2% below the 5-year average and 18.8% below the 10-year average.
• All property types saw single-digit year-over-year decreases in the number of new listings.
• Only Washington D.C. saw an increase in the number of new listings, with an 11.9% increase to 761 new listings.

• Inventories increased to 8,277 at the end of January, a 4.1% increase compared to last year.
• Inventories are slightly above the 5-year average of 7,823 but substantially below the 10-year average of 12,330.
• Townhome inventories are down slightly, but single-family detached and condos are up.
• End of January inventories exceed the low of 6,049 seen in 2013, but are down 62.7% from the peak of 22,201 seen in January 2008.
• Washington D.C. had the largest percentage increase in year-end inventory with 1,114 active listings, an increase of 16.3% compared to last year.  Regional supply growth was seen in Fairfax County (+8.9%), Prince George’s County (+2.6%), Washington D.C (+16.3%), Arlington County (+0.7%) and Alexandria City (+0.3).  Montgomery County showed a decrease in the number of active listings (-2.7%), as did Fairfax City (-23.1%) and Falls Church City (-13.6%).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio for January was 96%, up from 95.7% last year.
• Over the last decade, the region’s January average sales price to original listing price ratio ranged from a low of 90.0% in 2009 to a high of 96.6% in 2014.
• Homes in Washington D.C. sold at 97.4% of their original listing price in January, the highest in the region and up slightly from the 96.9% seen last year.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Falls Church City, where the average ratio was 93.2%, down from the 96.3% seen last year.

• The median days-on-market in January was 44 days, a one-day decrease from the median DOM of January 2015.
• The lowest January DOM level recorded in the past decade was 32 days in 2013 and 2014; the highest January median DOM was 85 days in 2008.
• The highest median DOM is in Falls Church City, where it is 92 days, a 52 day increase from last year.  The lowest median DOM is in Washington D.C., where it is 26 days, a decline of 2 days from last year.